Indonesia’s current economy is at a critical point. The rupiah depreciation, the acceleration of inflation which poised the highest level since global financial crisis, coupled with rising current account deficit and the hemorrhage of international reserves attributable to capital outflow  and huge short term external debt of private sector which has reached maturity have precipitated high instability of Indonesian macro economy. The Indonesian macroeconomic indicators have been deteriorating for more than a year.  Besides, the high pressure of Indonesian economy is also attributable to the economic deterioration of emerging economies and an uncertain global economy.  Hence, it is essential to put on alert that the aggravation of the condition may plunge the Indonesian economy into a crisis. read more

The Indonesia’s economy, which is measured by the amount of of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices registered growth from IDR 1,975.5 trillion in Q1 2012 to IDR 2,146.4 trillion in Q1 2013. Meanwhile, GDP at constant prices 2000 increased from Q1 2012 amounted for IDR 633.2 trillion to IDR 662.0 trillion in Q1 2013.

However, as predicted by GAMA LEI, the Indonesia’s economic growth in the Q1 2013 registered slight growth of just 6.02%, which was lower than 6.29% posted in the same period in 2012 and even lower than 6.1% in Q4 2012. This is the second time GAMA LEI has been able to predict precisely the signs of slower economic growth. On the contrary, predictions of the Indonesian government, pointed to signs of stonger economic growth. Moreover, Bank Indonesia had projected economic growth of 6.2% in the first quarter 2013 which was atrributable to strong investment and household consumption expenditure. Besides, GAMA LEI also succeeded to outperform predictions of the Asian Development Bank, which pointed to growth of 6.4 % of the Indonesian economy. The reality is that the Indonesia’s economy experienced lower growth in the Q1 2013 than predictions of economic analysts’experts, which is commensurate with results of GAMA LEI research that stressed the fact that the performance of the Indonesia’s economy in early 2013 would not be better than that posted in the previous year. read more

The impact of sluggish economic growth in US and Europe has begun to bear on Indonesia, as reflected in the decrease in exports. Despite the fact that Indonesia succeeded in registering economic growth of 6.23 % YoY in 2012, making one of best performing economy in Asia after China, which recorded economic growth of 7.8% (YoY). However the achievement is tempered by the fact that 2012 growth figure is in fact lower than the assumption of 6.5% which was used in making National Budget (APBN) for 2012. Moreover, economic growth rate for 2012, is even lower compared to economic growth registered in 2011, which able to reach 6.5% (YoY).  In 2012, the value of Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2000 constant prices was IDR 2,618.1 trillion, which was an increase of IDR 153.4 trillion from  IDR 2,464.7 trillion in 2011. read more