GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (GAMA LEI)

Leading Economic Indicator is one of early warning system models that predicts the movement and direction of the economy in future. GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (GAMA LEI) is a model developed by the Macroeconomic Dashboard at the FEB UGM. Turning points and movements in the GAMA LEI graphed is used to predict the direction of the Indonesian economy over some period in future. GAMA LEI analysis is based on quantitative and qualitative methods that generate and produce the best prediction.
The compilation of GAMA LEI uses various indicators which have been subjected to robust statistical tests. The performance of a variable such as investment, automobiles sales, exports and international reserves are analyzed from both macroperspective such as market capitalization and IDX of the capital market which have significant influence on the economy. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that some macroeconomic indicators are likely to change any time in future.    
GAMA LEI is able to make an accurate prediction of the cycle of the Indonesian economy sometime back prior to the event. The prediction which GAMA LEI makes has proved its efficacy in predicting the direction of the cycle of Indonesian economy. The decline in the performance of some key economic indicators in Indonesian economy have led to the weakening of economic growth in 2014:Q1 compared with 2013:Q4. In this edition, GAMA LEI predicts the fluctuation of the economy in 2014, which has been designated as the year of politics, especially so in the lead up to the forthcoming presidential elections in July.
The variety of patterns in Indonesian economic growth and projection of the cycle of the Indonesian economy in GAMA LEI model has the ability to produce a comprehensive prediction. The prediction of the business cycle places a lot of emphasis on the movement of the economic cycle in the direction toward either expansion or contraction for some time in future. GAMA LEI 2014:Q1 cycle lies at the expansion phase (falls above 100), albeit signs of declining. As an example: Indonesian economic growth in 2014:Q1 (year-on-year) increased, but the GDP cycle generated by the model shows a downward trend that is still within the expansion phase. read more

1. GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (GAMA LEI)

GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (GAMA LEI) is a model, which was developed by Macroeconomic Dashboard team, of FEB, UGM, which has the ability to undertake state of the art forecasting. Prediction results generated by GAMA LEI model have the ability to predict the direction of movements of Indonesian economy in future long before the event. The prediction of the direction of movement of Indonesian economy is done by observing the movement or change in direction, which is produced by the GAMA LEI model for a certain period of time. GAMA LEI is compiled on the basis of stringent quantitative and qualitative tests and using a selection of certain variables, deemed to have the ability to produce the best prediction. read more