Category Archives: GAMA LEI and Economic Outlook
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator and Economic Outlook 2013:Q3
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (GAMA LEI) in this edition portrays a the tendency of deterioration of economic growth.
Figure 20: GAMA LEI Indonesia, 2001:Q1 – 2013:Q2
The above figure shows circular movement of Indonesian economy , viewed from the perspective of GDP constant and GAMA LEI right from 2000 to quarter II-2013. The movement of GAMA LEI is able to predict with high precision the time/period when the cycle of Indonesian economy changes course, several months prior to the event. GAMA LEI has successfully predicted with precision and accuracy the deterioration in economic performance of Indonesian economy three times in succession–from quarter IV-2012 through quarter II-2013. This edition, GAMA LEI which was established by the Macroeconomic Dashboard team of the Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB UGM), focuses on forecasting the movement of Indonesian economy during quarter III-2013.
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator and Economic Outlook 2013:Q2
GAMA LEI has succeeded twice in predicting accurately and precisely potential signs of weakening performance of the Indonesian economy. GAMA LEI predicted economic growth decreased, which has been shown by lowering economic growth of 6.11% and 6.01% (YoY) in Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 respectively. GAMA LEI predictions were in stark contrast with those issued by most economic analysts who projected higher economic growth rate. In this edition, GAMA LEI predicts slow economic growth in Q2 2013.
Figure 19 : GAMA LEI Indonesia, 2000:Q1 – 2013:Q1
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator and Economic Outlook 2013:Q1
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator
Indonesian business cycle if approached using the quarterly GDP for 2000-2012 period, shows a highly fluctuating trajectory. The movement of GDP business cycle was well predicted by GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (LEI). GAMA LEI are able to predict the point at which a business cycle of an economy starts to change course.
During the 2008 global economic crisis, using GAMA LEI signs of an economic changing course in the third quarter 2007 was able to predict the deterioration in the performance of the Indonesian economy in third quarter 2008. Subsequently, GAMA LEI signs of changing course in the first quarter 2009, succeeded in predicting improvement in the performance of the Indonesian economy in the fourth quarter in 2009.