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GAMA Leading Economic Indicator and Economic Outlook 2013:Q4
Leading Economic Indicator is one of the early warning system models that can be used to predict movements in the economy in future. GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (GAMA LEI) is a model, which was developed by Macroeconomic Dashboard team, of FEB, UGM, which has the ability to carry out forecasting. Prediction results generated by GAMA LEI model have the ability to predict the direction of movements of Indonesian economy in future. The prediction of the direction of movement of Indonesian economy is done by observing the movement or change in direction which is produced by the GAMA LEI model for a certain period of time. GAMA LEI is compiled on the basis of stringent quantitative and qualitative tests and using a selection of certain variables, deemed to have the ability to produce the best prediction.
International 2013:Q4
The Indonesia trade balance performance has improved as by October 2013. The Indonesia trade balance which registered deficit of USD 0.8 billion in September 2013, became a surplus once again of USD 0.04 billion in October 2013. Improvement in the performance of the trade balance was in part attributable to the increase in exports, which rose by 6.9% over the level registered in September 2013, while imports increased by 1.06% during the same period.
Figure 15: Indonesia Trade Balance, 2011 – 2013*
Trade balance posted a surplus in October 2013.
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik and CEIC (2013)
*= October 2013
Developments in Government Finances and Fiscal 2013:Q4
A. Developments in Fiscal Sector
The decline in economic growth has had adverse effect on tax revenues. Indonesian economic growth declined in 2013. On y-o-y basis, the economy posted growth of 6.05%, 5,83%, 5.62%, in quarter I, quarter II, and III, 2013, respectively, which was lower than 6.2% projected in the revised state budget assumption for 2013 (APBN-P 2013). Consequently, tax revenues declined.
Tax revenues are still below target. Nonetheless, if compared with the same period in 2012, (y-o-y), tax revenues registered an increase of 7.72%. Based on data from the Directorate General of Treasury, by October 31, 2013, tax revenues had reached IDR 634.6 trillion, which is 71.75% of the target set in the APBN-P 2013. To that end, lower than planned target tax revenues will complicate government efforts to achieve the target for the budget year by end of the year.
Table 1: Tax Revenues for January 1-October 31, 2013
Two months remain before the fiscal year comes to a close, but realized tax revenues still hover around 71.75% of the target set in APBN-P 2013.