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GAMA Leading Economic Indicator and Economic Outlook 2013:Q3
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (GAMA LEI) in this edition portrays a the tendency of deterioration of economic growth.
Figure 20: GAMA LEI Indonesia, 2001:Q1 – 2013:Q2
The above figure shows circular movement of Indonesian economy , viewed from the perspective of GDP constant and GAMA LEI right from 2000 to quarter II-2013. The movement of GAMA LEI is able to predict with high precision the time/period when the cycle of Indonesian economy changes course, several months prior to the event. GAMA LEI has successfully predicted with precision and accuracy the deterioration in economic performance of Indonesian economy three times in succession–from quarter IV-2012 through quarter II-2013. This edition, GAMA LEI which was established by the Macroeconomic Dashboard team of the Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB UGM), focuses on forecasting the movement of Indonesian economy during quarter III-2013.
International 2013:Q3
Weakening growth of the world and regional economy, coupled with low of Indonesia’s international competitiveness, compounded with falling commodity prices, have all undermined Indonesian exports.
Figure 14 : Indonesia Trade Balance January 2011 – July 2013
Indonesia trade balance registered the largest record deficit so far
Source: BPS and CEIC (2013)
Indonesian trade balance deteriorated in July 2013. The trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 2.3 billion, which followed a deficit of USD 0.9 billion in June 2013. Cumulatively, from June to July, 2013, Indonesia has posted a trade balance deficit of USD 5.6 Billion.
Developments in Government Finances and Fiscal 2013:Q3
A. Developments in the Fiscal
The economic growth in quarter II-2013 stood at 5.8% (yoy), was lower than 6.3% posted in quarter II- 2012. The slowdown of Indonesian economic growth had adverse effect on low state revenues. The realization of state revenue by 31 August 2013 was IDR 844.9 trillion, which was higher than IDR 798.36 trillion posted during the same period in 2012. However, state revenues recorded in August 2013 of 56.3% of the target set in the Revised State Budget 2013 (APBN-P 2013), is lower than the achievement of 58.7% of the Revised State Budget 2012 (APBN-P 2012).