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GAMA Leading Economic Indicator and Economic Outlook 2013:Q2
GAMA LEI has succeeded twice in predicting accurately and precisely potential signs of weakening performance of the Indonesian economy. GAMA LEI predicted economic growth decreased, which has been shown by lowering economic growth of 6.11% and 6.01% (YoY) in Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 respectively. GAMA LEI predictions were in stark contrast with those issued by most economic analysts who projected higher economic growth rate. In this edition, GAMA LEI predicts slow economic growth in Q2 2013.
Figure 19 : GAMA LEI Indonesia, 2000:Q1 – 2013:Q1
International 2013:Q2
Indonesia trade balance has deteriorated in April 2013. If in March 2013, Indonesia trade balance posted a surplus of USD 0.1 billion, conversely the economy relapsed into a trade deficit of USD 1.6 billion in April 2013. The deterioration in trade balance is attributable to the surge in imports by 9.6%. The rise in the value of imports is in part as a result of a surge in non oil imports from USD 11 billion to USD 12.7 billion, meanwhile, oil imports registered a decrease of USD 0.3 billion or 7.7%. The decrease in exports from USD 15.02 billion to USD 14.7 billion is another factor that contributed to the drop in the trade balance in April 2013.
Developments in Government Finances and Fiscal 2013:Q2
A. Development in Fiscal
In Q1 2013, Indonesia posted economic growth of 6.02%, which is lower than 6.29%, registered in the same period previous year. Slower economic growth is by and large, attributable to low utilization/absorption rate of the national budget, which in quarter I, was under 10 percent. In addition, the decrease in the performance of trade balance caused by falling commodity prices also contributed to lower than expected economic growth in the first quarter. To that end, it is not surprising that such conditions culminated in the revision of macroeconomic assumptions the 2013 state budget.