Home » Eng (Page 15)
Category Archives: Eng
Latest Economic Developments 2013Q2
The Indonesia’s economy, which is measured by the amount of of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices registered growth from IDR 1,975.5 trillion in Q1 2012 to IDR 2,146.4 trillion in Q1 2013. Meanwhile, GDP at constant prices 2000 increased from Q1 2012 amounted for IDR 633.2 trillion to IDR 662.0 trillion in Q1 2013.
However, as predicted by GAMA LEI, the Indonesia’s economic growth in the Q1 2013 registered slight growth of just 6.02%, which was lower than 6.29% posted in the same period in 2012 and even lower than 6.1% in Q4 2012. This is the second time GAMA LEI has been able to predict precisely the signs of slower economic growth. On the contrary, predictions of the Indonesian government, pointed to signs of stonger economic growth. Moreover, Bank Indonesia had projected economic growth of 6.2% in the first quarter 2013 which was atrributable to strong investment and household consumption expenditure. Besides, GAMA LEI also succeeded to outperform predictions of the Asian Development Bank, which pointed to growth of 6.4 % of the Indonesian economy. The reality is that the Indonesia’s economy experienced lower growth in the Q1 2013 than predictions of economic analysts’experts, which is commensurate with results of GAMA LEI research that stressed the fact that the performance of the Indonesia’s economy in early 2013 would not be better than that posted in the previous year.
Indonesia Economy 2013: Toward the Year of ‘Politics’
By A. Tony Prasetiantono[1]
The year 2013 is a crucial one from the vantage point of political economy, because it sets the stage for next year, which will be a year of politics in which the conduct of elections for both the legislature and the President will be getting underway. In common parlance, such a year is often referred to as the year of living dangerously. However, I have the boldness to assure all, that there will not be economic and political uncertainty simply because of the general elections.
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator and Economic Outlook 2013:Q1
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator
Indonesian business cycle if approached using the quarterly GDP for 2000-2012 period, shows a highly fluctuating trajectory. The movement of GDP business cycle was well predicted by GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (LEI). GAMA LEI are able to predict the point at which a business cycle of an economy starts to change course.
During the 2008 global economic crisis, using GAMA LEI signs of an economic changing course in the third quarter 2007 was able to predict the deterioration in the performance of the Indonesian economy in third quarter 2008. Subsequently, GAMA LEI signs of changing course in the first quarter 2009, succeeded in predicting improvement in the performance of the Indonesian economy in the fourth quarter in 2009.