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GAMA Leading Economic Indicator and Economic Outlook 2013:Q1
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator
Indonesian business cycle if approached using the quarterly GDP for 2000-2012 period, shows a highly fluctuating trajectory. The movement of GDP business cycle was well predicted by GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (LEI). GAMA LEI are able to predict the point at which a business cycle of an economy starts to change course.
During the 2008 global economic crisis, using GAMA LEI signs of an economic changing course in the third quarter 2007 was able to predict the deterioration in the performance of the Indonesian economy in third quarter 2008. Subsequently, GAMA LEI signs of changing course in the first quarter 2009, succeeded in predicting improvement in the performance of the Indonesian economy in the fourth quarter in 2009.
International 2013:Q1
Indonesia trade balance deficit in 2012 was accounted for USD 1.7 billion, which is worse compared to its performance in 2011 that registered surplus USD 26.1 billion. The weakening of Indonesia balance of trade in 2012 is attributable to the decrease in the oil and gas’ trade balance from surplus of USD 0.8 billion in 2011 to deficit of USD 5.6 billion in 2012. Besides, the deteriorating of Indonesia trade balance also caused by the decrease of non oil and gas’ trade balance from USD 25.3 billion in 2011 to USD 4 billion in 2012.
Developments in Government Finances and Fiscal 2013:Q1
Developments in Government Finances
The state of macroeconomic conditions at the end of 2012 was not consistent with assumptions that underpinned 2012 revised budget. Uncertainty that continue to bedevil economic conditions in the domestic economy and the global economy, have constrained growth of the economy to just 6.2%, which is below the assumption of 6.5% in the 2012 revised national budget. This is in part attributable to the trade deficit registered in 2012. In addition, budget utilization or absorption rate in 2012 was 95.6%, hence below target.