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Latest Economic Developments 2013Q1
The impact of sluggish economic growth in US and Europe has begun to bear on Indonesia, as reflected in the decrease in exports. Despite the fact that Indonesia succeeded in registering economic growth of 6.23 % YoY in 2012, making one of best performing economy in Asia after China, which recorded economic growth of 7.8% (YoY). However the achievement is tempered by the fact that 2012 growth figure is in fact lower than the assumption of 6.5% which was used in making National Budget (APBN) for 2012. Moreover, economic growth rate for 2012, is even lower compared to economic growth registered in 2011, which able to reach 6.5% (YoY). In 2012, the value of Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2000 constant prices was IDR 2,618.1 trillion, which was an increase of IDR 153.4 trillion from IDR 2,464.7 trillion in 2011.
The Economic Crisis in Europe: Continues
By Prof. Dr. Sri Adiningsih, M.Sc. and Rosa Kristiadi M.Comm
European economic crisis which begun in 2010 shows no signs of abating. The ongoing economic crisis in the Eurozone region is attributable to the large public debt , which started to emerge in 2000, reflected in a significant increase in the ratio of government debt. In 2000, the ratio of government debt for Greece was just 77% of GDP, but in 2012 it had surged to 170%. IMF predicts that Greece debt ratio will rise above 180% in 2013, due to the widening budget deficit. Such a condition is very much in contrast to Maastricht Treaty rules that impose maximum limit of 60% on the country’s debt to GDP ratio and a deficit of 3 % of GDP. The theory is that economic uncertainty in the regional economy is unavoidable if the two ratios go beyond the maximum limits imposed
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator and Economic Outlook 2012:Q4
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator
Indonesian business cycles, which uses the quarterly GDP data for 2000-2012 shows a modestly fluctuating cycles. The movement business GDP cycles is predicted using Leading Economic Indicator (LEI), which has the ability to predict the resumption point from the business economic cycles.
Gama LEI is able to predict the point at which the economy changes course during the 2008 global financial crisis, which was the third quarter of 2007, which was followed by the change for the worse in course of GDP in mid 2008. Subsequently, Gama LEI predicts with high accuracy the recovery of GDP at the start of 2009, which is followed by improvement in PDB cycles in late 2009.