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GAMA Leading Economic Indicator and Economic Outlook 2012:Q4
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator
Indonesian business cycles, which uses the quarterly GDP data for 2000-2012 shows a modestly fluctuating cycles. The movement business GDP cycles is predicted using Leading Economic Indicator (LEI), which has the ability to predict the resumption point from the business economic cycles.
Gama LEI is able to predict the point at which the economy changes course during the 2008 global financial crisis, which was the third quarter of 2007, which was followed by the change for the worse in course of GDP in mid 2008. Subsequently, Gama LEI predicts with high accuracy the recovery of GDP at the start of 2009, which is followed by improvement in PDB cycles in late 2009.
Developments in Monetary Indicators 2012Q4
A. Money in Circulation
Money in circulation, MI and M2 shows an upward trend reaching IDR 782 trillion and IDR 3,168 trillion in October 2012 respectively, higher than IDR 779 trillion and IDR 3,050 trillion in June 2012. This shows an increase of 0.3% and 3.8% from June to October 2012. In terms of year on year, MI and M2 in October 2012, constituted an increase of 17.6% and 18.3% from the values for October 2011. Nonetheless, compared with values for September 2012, the level of MI showed a decrease of 1.7 %.