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ASEAN: Registers Optimum Economic Potential amidst Global and Regional Economic Instability
In general, as the year 2013, came to an end, economies in ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) economic region were able to register slower economic growth hence have not yet to reach their full potential. Sub optimal regional economy, was largely attributable to the performance of Indonesia and Thailand in 2013, which are key players in the region, which fell below the level achieved in 2012. Based on year on year growth, in 2013, Indonesia and Indonesia registered economic growth of 5.8% and 2.9%, respectively, which was lower than 6.2% and 6.4%, in 2012, respectively. Such a situation is cause for concern considering the fact that one of the engines of growth in Asia, ASEAN only registered anaemic growth of 5% over the last decade, which falls far short of economic potential amidst formidable economic challenges associated with the formation of ASEAN Economic Community 2015.
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator and Economic Outlook 2014:Q1
1. GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (GAMA LEI)
GAMA Leading Economic Indicator (GAMA LEI) is a model, which was developed by Macroeconomic Dashboard team, of FEB, UGM, which has the ability to undertake state of the art forecasting. Prediction results generated by GAMA LEI model have the ability to predict the direction of movements of Indonesian economy in future long before the event. The prediction of the direction of movement of Indonesian economy is done by observing the movement or change in direction, which is produced by the GAMA LEI model for a certain period of time. GAMA LEI is compiled on the basis of stringent quantitative and qualitative tests and using a selection of certain variables, deemed to have the ability to produce the best prediction.
Developments in Government Finances and Fiscal 2014:Q1
As per January 2014, revenue and grant realization had reached 5.5% of the target of IDR 1,667.1 trillion set in the state budget 2014, while government expenditure realization was 5.3%. Target of revenue and grants consist of IDR 1,665.78 trillion and IDR 1.36 trillion, in domestic revenues and grants, respectively. To date, tax revenues have reached 6.5% of the target set in state budget 2014 of IDR 1,280.4 trillion, were just 2% of the target of IDR 385.4 trillion. Total government expenditure in state budget 2014, is set at IDR 1,842.5 trillion, which comprise IDR 1,249.9 trillion in central government expenditure and IDR 592.6 trillion in regional government transfer. By January 2014, realized central government expenditure has reached 3.2%, while transfer local governments was 9.6%. Debt repayment and social contributions constitute the largest percentage of realized government expenditure, registering 10.8% and 10.1%, respectively.