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International 2012:Q4

On the performance of international trade, Indonesia registers a deficit in October 2012, which came as a result of a decrease of 1.45% in the value of exports which stood at USD 15, 667.3 million from the value for the previous month. The decrease in value of exports is by and large, attributable to 3.42 % drop in non oil exports in October 2012 from the figure posted for September 2012. The value of exports decreased both in trems of monthly figures and yearly figures (January-October 2012). The value of Indonesian exports was USD 158,664.3 million for January-October 2012, which was a decrease of 6.62% from USD 169,183.5 million recorded in the same period in 2011. This is an indication that the weakening global economy continue to have adverse impact on Indonesian exports.

Meanwhile, the value of Indonesian imports reached USD 17,214.3 million in October 2012, which represents an increase of 12.16% from the value recorded in the previous month. The increase in the value of imports is attributable to a rise of 11.1% and 3.53 % in the value of non oil and oil imports, respectively.   As a result of an increase in the value of imports and a decrease in the value of exports, Indonesia experienced a trade deficit of USD 1,547 million in October 2012. The Indonesian balance of trade position for January-October 2012 period, in cumulative terms, posted a deficit of USD 516.17 million.

 

The value of oil and gas exports in October 2012 was USD 2,988.6 million, which represented an increase of 7.87% from USD 2,770.5 million in September 2012. The increase in the value of oil exports of 31.09%, and natural gas of 7.84% and crude oil of 0.8% from the September to October 2012, induced a rise in the value of oil and gas exports. However, the increase in the value of oil and gas exports during January – October 2012 was rather weak as it represented a decrease of 8.23% from the value recorded during the same period in the previos year.

Meanwhile, the value of oil and gas exports increased by 11.48%, from USD 3,443 million in September 2012 to USD 3,838.1 million in October 2012. The increase in the value of oil and gas imports in October 2012, is largely attributable to an increase in crude oil and natural gas imports of 37.86% and 10.01%, respectively. The trade balance in oil and gas products posted a deficit of USD 849.50 million in October 2012. In cumulative terms, the trade balance in oil and gas products registered a deficit of USD 3,159.26 million for January-October 2012 period.

 

The trade balance in non oil and gas decreases once again in October 2012, as a deficit of USD 697.5 million, which followed a surplus of USD 1,222.07 million in September 2012. This contributed to a decrease of 3.42 % in the value of non oil and gas exports from   USD 13,127.6 million in September 2012 to USD 12,678.7 million in October 2012. The decrease in non oil and gas exports during January-October 2012, by sector, was attributable to a decrease of 5.30% in large Industry exports, and a drop of 9.53 % in mining and others, compared with the same period in 2011. Nonetheless, agricultural exports continued to register growth of 10.54 % during January-October 2012 period, compared with the same period in 2011

On the contrary, the value of Indonesian non oil and gas imports registered an increase from USD 11,905.6 million in September 2012 to USD 13,376.2 million in October 2012. The increase in non oil and gas imports in October 2012 was largely attributable to imports of raw materials from some key trading partners such as China and Japan, which was 12.05% higher than in September 2012 and contributed 73.04% during January – October 2012 period.

 

A deficit in current accounts decreased in line with slower economic growth of Indonesian economy. The decrease in current accounts deficit from USD 7,687 million in the second quarter 2012 to USD 5,336 million in the third quarter 2012, was largely as a result of improvement in the performance of trade balance which recorded a surplus of USD 817 million in second quarter 2012 that increased to USD 3,039 million in the third quarter 2012, as the value of imports decreased. Meanwhile, Indonesian current account in the third quarter 2012 registed a sharp decrease compared with the same period in 2011. In the third quarter 2012, Indonesian current accounts posted a deficit of USD 5,336 million, which much in contrast to surplus of USD 766 million registered in same period in 2011.

 

The capital and financial accounts position worsened in the third quarter 2012. The surplus in capital and financial accounts increased from USD 5,054 million in the second quarter 2012 to USD 5,959 million in the third quarter 2012. In fact, capital and financial acounts in the third quarter 2012 represented a sharp increase from the position recorded during the same period in 2011. Indonesian capital and financial accounts, which showed a deficit of USD 3,293 million in the third quarter 2011, moved a surplus of USD 5,959 million in the third quarter 2012. The surplus in capital and financial accounts was attributable to an increase in direct investments and portfolio investments. The increase in the direct investment surplus which stod at USD 2,119 million in the third quarter 2011, rose to USD 3,583 million in the third quarter 2012. Meanwhile, portfolio investment, which showed a deficit of USD 4,649 million, became a surplus of USD 3,846 million. The increase in inflow of foreign funds attests to the positive sentiments of foreign investors about the domestic economy.

 

Indonesia balance of payments posted a suplus of USD 834 million in the third quarter 2012, which was an improvement on the performance in the third quarter 2011, which registered a deficit. The surplus in balance of payments was attributable to a decrease in the current accounts deficit and an increase in the surplus in the capital and financial accounts. Indonesia registered a deficit of USD 5,336 million on its current accounts in the third quarter 2012, which however an improvement on the deficit of USD 7,687 million posted in the third quarter in 2011. Improvement in current accounts was largely a consequence of a surplus in trade balance registered in third quarter 2012. The same is also evident in the third quarter 2012, capital and financial accounts posted an increase of 17.92% compared with the second quarter 2012. Indonesia recorded a surplus of USD 5,960 million on its capital and financial accounts position in the third quarter 2012, which was largest so far. Improvement in the surplus balance of payments, contributed much to an increase in the level of international reserves that reached USD 110,172 million by late September.


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